CHAPTER ONE

1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND OF STUDY

Oil is a major source of energy in Nigeria and the world in general. Oil being the mainstay of the Nigerian economy plays a vital role in shaping the economic and political destiny of the country. Although Nigeria’s oil industry was founded at the beginning of the century, it was not until the end of the Nigeria civil war (1967 - 1970) that the oil industry began to play a prominent role in the economic life of the country (Gbadebo Odularu, 2009). Nigeria can be categorized as a country that is primarily rural, which depends on primary product exports (especially oil products). Since the attainment of independence in 1960 it has experienced ethnic, regional and religious tensions, magnified by the significant disparities in economic, educational and environmental development in the south and the north. These could be partly attributed to the major discovery of oil in the country which affects and is affected by economic and social components.

Crude oil discovery has had certain impacts on the Nigeria economy both positively and adversely. On the negative side, this can be considered with respect to the surrounding communities within which the oil wells are exploited. Some of these communities still suffer environmental degradation, which leads to deprivation of means of livelihood and other economic and social factors. Although large proceeds are obtained from the domestic sales and export of petroleum products, its effect on the growth of the Nigerian economy as regards returns and productivity is still questionable, hence, the need to evaluate the relative impacts of crude oil on the economy (Kehinde, 2010).

1.2 STATEMENT OF PROBLEM

Given the fact that the oil sector is a very crucial sector in the Nigeria economy, there is the dire need for an appropriate and desirable production and export policy for the sector. The problem of production and distribution could be as a result of lack of refineries, poor management procedure. Another problem could be of the fear factor whether the production for a particular year will vary in quality compared to the latter. In Nigeria, though crude oil has contributed largely to the economy, the revenue has not been properly used. Considering the fact that there are other sectors in the economy, the excess revenue made from the oil sector can be invested in them to diversify and also increase the total GDP of the economy

1.3 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF STUDY

The main aim of the research work is to carry out a time series analysis of crude oil production of Nigeria from 2007 to 2017. Other specific objectives of the study are:

1.  to predict the future production of crude oil in Nigeria

2.  to determine whether there will be difference in crude oil production between  2017 and 2018

3.  to determine the effect of inadequate refineries on crude oil production

4.  to investigate on other factors affecting crude oil production in Nigeria

1.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS

The study came up with research questions so as to ascertain the above stated objectives of the study. The research questions for the study are:

1.  How can the future production of crude oil in Nigeria be predicted?

2.  What is the difference in crude oil production between 2017 and 2018?

3.  What is the effect of inadequate refineries on crude oil production?

4.  What are the factors affecting crude oil production in Nigeria?

1.5 STATEMENT OF RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS

H0: there is no significant improvement in crude oil production in the year 2018

H1: there is significant improvement in crude oil production in the year 2018

1.6 SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY

The study will be of immense benefit to the statistics students in Nigeria; the study will educate the students, NNPC and other research on how to predict the future production of crude oil in Nigeria. The study will also contribute to the body of the existing literature on time series analysis of crude oil production of Nigeria from 2007 to 2017.

1.7 SCOPE OF STUDY

The study will cover on time series analysis of crude oil production of Nigeria from 2007 to 2017

1.8 LIMITATION OF STUDY

Financial constraint- Insufficient fund tends to impede the efficiency of the researcher in sourcing for the relevant materials, literature or information and in the process of data collection (Statistical bulletin).

Time constraint- The researcher will simultaneously engage in this study with other academic work. This consequently will cut down on the time devoted for the research work.

1.9 DEFINITION OF TERMS

Petroleum Products: are materials derived from crude oil (petroleum) as it is processed in oil refineries

Crude oil:Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. A type of fossil fuel, crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals.

CHAPTER TWO: REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE

2.0 INTRODUCTION

This chapter gives an insight into various studies conducted by outstanding researchers, as well as explained terminologies with regards to time series analysis of crude oil production of Nigeria from 2007-2017. The chapter also gives a resume of the history and present status of the problem delineated by a concise review of previous studies into closely related problems

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