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ABSTRACT
This study examined the exchange rate pass-through effect at the aggregate level into import
and consumer prices in Nigeria between the periods 1986 and 2014. The study used the
Threshold Regression statistical technique to ascertain the possibility of the presence of
nonlinearity and asymmetry in the behaviour of exchange rate pass-through in Nigeria. It also
considered the pass-through from exchange rate to import prices, using import data, and then
the pass-through from import prices to consumer prices. The study found that Exchange Rate
Pass-Through in Nigeria is incomplete, low, nonlinear, slow in speed and symmetric. The
effect was discovered to be higher on import than consumer prices, implying that the pass-
through effect declines along the pricing chain. These findings are useful in the design and
implementation of monetary and exchange rate policies by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
Globalisation has increased the openness of global economies thereby necessitating an
increased focus on exchange rate pass-through with the aim of determining an appropriate
monetary policy response to exchange rate fluctuations. The incidence of large fluctuations in
exchange rates has informed the need for a better understanding of the determinants of
transmission of exchange rate variations into import and domestic prices (Aliyu, Sanni and
Duke, 2009). The concept of Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT) has been well known to
Economists for a long time but significant interest in the concept grew since after the Plaza
Accord of 1985. This was an agreement between France, West Germany, Japan, USA and
UK to depreciate the US dollar in relation to the Japanese yen and German Deutsche Mark
and it was expected that the price of Japanese import in US dollar would be expensive.
However, it was later observed that the price of the Japanese imports in US dollar rose only
slightly or even remained unchanged and in some cases actually declined (Goldberg and
Knetter in Berga, 2012). This prompted Economists‟ increased interest in trying to estimate
the extent of speed and magnitude of Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT).
Exchange Rate Pass-Through refers to the change in domestic prices that can be attributed to
a prior change in the nominal exchange rate (Aliyu et al., 2009). It is also generally
considered as the extent to which changes in exchange rate are reflected in the prices of
goods and services (Sanusi, 2010). When there is a proportionate change in domestic prices
arising from a change in exchange rate, the pass-through is said to be complete. It is
incomplete when the change is less than proportionate and zero pass-through occurs, when a
change in exchange rate does not affect domestic prices. ERPT affects consumer prices
directly through prices of imported consumer goods and indirectly through the prices of
1
imported intermediate goods. When the currency of the domestic country appreciates, it will
lead to lower import prices of finished goods and inputs. Likewise, when the domestic
currency depreciates, it will result in higher import prices which are more likely to be passed
on to consumer prices. Currency depreciation also causes a rise in the prices of imported
inputs which may result in the increase in the marginal cost of producers. Thus, this results to
higher prices in domestically produced goods (Mohammed, 2013).
Initially ERPT was perceived to be theoretically one-to-one, i.e, hundred percent change in
foreign price is wholly passed unto domestic consumer prices. This is because the Purchasing
Power Parity (PPP) was based on the perfect competitive market model. However, later
empirical studies have found ERPT to be incomplete (Berga, 2012). This may not be
unconnected with the fact that most of the assumptions underlying the theory do not exist in
reality thus, leading to contradictory outcomes from empirical studies. Some of the
explanations to the incompleteness of pass-through include the exporters‟ Pricing-To-Market
(PTM). Krugman (1987) first popularised this idea that, when there is a depreciation in the
importers‟ currency, foreign exporters tend to reduce their export prices by reducing the
margin of their profits instead of increasing the import prices in order to maintain market
share. Similarly, exporters may invoice in the currency of the importer known as Local
Currency Pricing (LCP). In such situations, prices do not often fluctuate with the variation in
exchange rate (Goldberg and Knetter, 1997). Similarly, some studies on ERPT have found
that in some cases, there tend to be higher pass-through during appreciation than during
depreciation. In some situations also, there tend to be zero/low pass-through during small
changes in exchanges and higher pass-through during higher changes in exchange rate. This
brings about the concept Asymmetry in ERPT.
There has been a debate about the major sources of inflation in Nigeria. Exchange rate
depreciation is believed to be one of the sources of inflationary trend in Ni
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